The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts that much of the United States will have a drier than average fall, while temperatures will vary by region with warmer conditions across the interior and cooler weather along many coastal areas.
The forecast also suggests that some regions could receive more rainfall than normal, making this autumn different from recent years in several parts of the country.
What Is the Old Farmer’s Almanac Fall Forecast?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac publishes seasonal weather outlooks every year. These forecasts provide expected temperature and rainfall patterns for the coming season rather than daily weather predictions.
The publication has been producing long range forecasts for more than two centuries. Its weather outlooks are based on a combination of solar science, climatology, and meteorology. The forecasts compare expected conditions with long term weather averages.
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Key Highlights of the Fall Forecast
The latest fall outlook includes several major weather trends across the United States.
| Forecast Area | Expected Pattern |
|---|---|
| Most of the country | Drier than average conditions |
| Interior United States | Warmer than average temperatures |
| East Coast | Cooler than average temperatures |
| Pacific Coast | Cooler than average temperatures |
| Parts of Texas | Wetter than average |
| Pacific Northwest | Wetter than average |
| Southern Florida | Slightly wetter than average |
| Parts of the Northeast | Above average rainfall |
These are seasonal outlooks rather than daily weather forecasts.
Temperature Outlook Across America
Temperature patterns are expected to vary by region.
Many interior states, including the Northern Plains, Heartland, and Deep South, are forecast to experience slightly warmer than normal temperatures during September and October.
Meanwhile, much of the East Coast and Pacific Coast may see slightly cooler than average conditions. In many places, the temperature difference is expected to be only one or two degrees from normal seasonal averages.
Rainfall Outlook
Rainfall is expected to be below average across much of the country.
However, some areas are forecast to receive above average precipitation, including:
- West Coast
- Central and Northern Rockies
- Parts of Texas
- Southern Florida
- Small parts of the Northeast
These regional differences make this year’s fall forecast more varied than a typical nationwide weather pattern.
Regional Weather Forecast
Northeast
The Northeast is expected to have cooler temperatures with wetter than average conditions. Some areas could receive more rainfall than normal during the season.
Southeast
Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly below average. Rainfall is expected to be lower than normal across much of the region.
Florida
Northern Florida may experience cooler and drier weather. Southern Florida could also be cooler, but rainfall may be slightly above average.
Midwest
Weather conditions may change during the season. Some areas could begin with cooler temperatures before becoming closer to normal later in the fall. Rainfall may increase during October in parts of the region.
Great Plains
The High Plains are expected to remain warmer than average with below average rainfall during much of the season.
Texas and Oklahoma
Northern Texas and Oklahoma are forecast to receive more rainfall than average while temperatures remain slightly cooler. Southern Texas is expected to be warmer with above average rainfall.
Pacific Northwest
This region is expected to experience cooler weather along with above average rainfall. Some locations may receive significantly more rain during September.
Southwest
The Desert Southwest is forecast to begin with a warmer September before cooling slightly in October. Rainfall is expected to remain below average.
Why the Forecast Is Considered Surprising
Many seasonal forecasts often suggest similar weather patterns across large parts of the country.
This outlook shows stronger regional differences. While most of the United States is expected to be drier than average, several areas could receive noticeably more rainfall. At the same time, warmer temperatures are forecast across the interior, while many coastal regions may experience cooler conditions.
How the Old Farmer’s Almanac Creates Seasonal Forecasts
The Old Farmer’s Almanac states that its long range forecasts are developed using three primary areas of study.
| Forecast Method | Purpose |
|---|---|
| Solar science | Studies changes in solar activity |
| Climatology | Examines long term climate patterns |
| Meteorology | Analyzes atmospheric conditions |
The organization compares expected weather conditions with historical averages based on a 30 year climate reference period. Seasonal forecasts are intended to show general weather trends rather than exact daily conditions.
Seasonal Forecasts and Daily Weather Forecasts
It is important to understand the difference between these two types of forecasts.
| Seasonal Forecast | Daily Forecast |
|---|---|
| Covers weeks or months | Covers specific days |
| Shows general trends | Gives detailed daily weather |
| Focuses on temperature and rainfall patterns | Includes exact temperatures, rain, wind, and storms |
| Used for long term planning | Used for short term decisions |
Seasonal outlooks should not be used to predict the weather on a specific day.
Who Can Benefit From Seasonal Weather Forecasts?
Long range weather outlooks can help many people plan ahead.
These forecasts are useful for:
- Farmers
- Gardeners
- Travelers
- Outdoor event planners
- Landscapers
- Homeowners
- Businesses that depend on seasonal weather
The forecasts provide general expectations that can support long term planning before the season begins.
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Important Things to Remember
- Seasonal forecasts describe overall weather patterns.
- Actual weather may differ from the seasonal outlook.
- Local weather systems can produce conditions that vary from regional forecasts.
- Daily weather forecasts provide more accurate information for specific dates.
- Seasonal outlooks are best used for planning over several weeks or months.
